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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45+7.88vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.30+7.53vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University2.12+3.25vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+6.13vs Predicted
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5Boston University1.44+3.63vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.22+3.67vs Predicted
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7Fordham University0.81+4.23vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34-2.71vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College1.45-0.38vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.69-2.06vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College0.76+0.60vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.69-3.91vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania1.61-5.10vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont1.27-4.84vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93-8.29vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College0.36-2.93vs Predicted
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17Florida State University0.60-4.82vs Predicted
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18Princeton University-0.87-1.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.1%1st Place
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9.53Cornell University1.300.0%1st Place
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6.25Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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10.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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8.63Boston University1.440.1%1st Place
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9.67George Washington University1.220.0%1st Place
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11.23Fordham University0.810.0%1st Place
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5.29St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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8.62Connecticut College1.450.1%1st Place
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7.94Tufts University1.690.1%1st Place
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11.6SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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8.09Webb Institute1.690.1%1st Place
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7.9University of Pennsylvania1.610.1%1st Place
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9.16University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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6.71U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.1%1st Place
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13.07Connecticut College0.360.0%1st Place
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12.18Florida State University0.600.0%1st Place
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16.1Princeton University-0.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Walker | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| Pilar Cundey | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 1.0% |
| Will Priebe | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 2.6% |
| Tiare Sierra | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 2.3% |
| James Owen | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 4.8% |
| Nathan Jensen | 14.2% | 13.9% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Craine | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Gus Macaulay | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Ben Hosford | 3.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 6.2% |
| Payne Donaldson | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| John Majernik | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Christian Cushman | 4.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 1.5% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Lilly Saffer | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 18.9% | 11.3% |
| Brady Parks | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 15.1% | 7.7% |
| Nicholas Lorenzen | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 13.0% | 59.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.