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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+9.35vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+3.42vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93+3.95vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.30+5.20vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.69+2.69vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College0.76+5.50vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.69+0.66vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont1.13+1.89vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College1.45-0.41vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.61-1.70vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.44-2.18vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.22-2.10vs Predicted
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13Fordham University0.81-1.95vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University2.12-8.14vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45-6.44vs Predicted
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16Florida State University0.60-3.84vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College0.36-3.98vs Predicted
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18Princeton University-0.87-1.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.35U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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5.42St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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6.95U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.1%1st Place
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9.2Cornell University1.300.1%1st Place
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7.69Webb Institute1.690.1%1st Place
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11.5SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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7.66Tufts University1.690.1%1st Place
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9.89University of Vermont1.130.0%1st Place
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8.59Connecticut College1.450.1%1st Place
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8.3University of Pennsylvania1.610.1%1st Place
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8.82Boston University1.440.1%1st Place
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9.9George Washington University1.220.0%1st Place
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11.05Fordham University0.810.0%1st Place
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5.86Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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8.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.1%1st Place
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12.16Florida State University0.600.0%1st Place
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13.02Connecticut College0.360.0%1st Place
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16.07Princeton University-0.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reed McAllister | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 2.5% |
| Nathan Jensen | 11.6% | 13.6% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Pilar Cundey | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Ben Hosford | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 6.1% |
| Gus Macaulay | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Cooper Smith | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 1.6% |
| Duncan Craine | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| John Majernik | 7.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Tiare Sierra | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 4.6% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 2.5% |
| James Owen | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 4.0% |
| Will Priebe | 11.9% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Walker | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Brady Parks | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 13.3% | 8.8% |
| Lilly Saffer | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 13.7% | 18.2% | 11.5% |
| Nicholas Lorenzen | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 15.3% | 57.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.