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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+9.40vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.69+5.96vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.69+4.90vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93+2.71vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.30+4.23vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University2.12+0.05vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College0.76+4.46vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45+0.54vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College1.45-0.36vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34-4.52vs Predicted
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11Fordham University0.81+0.32vs Predicted
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12Florida State University0.60+0.33vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.44-4.45vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.22-4.64vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College0.36-2.11vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.87+0.18vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont1.13-6.89vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania1.61-10.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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7.96Webb Institute1.690.1%1st Place
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7.9Tufts University1.690.1%1st Place
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6.71U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.1%1st Place
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9.23Cornell University1.300.1%1st Place
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6.05Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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11.46SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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8.54Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.1%1st Place
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8.64Connecticut College1.450.1%1st Place
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5.48St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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11.32Fordham University0.810.0%1st Place
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12.33Florida State University0.600.0%1st Place
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8.55Boston University1.440.1%1st Place
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9.36George Washington University1.220.0%1st Place
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12.89Connecticut College0.360.0%1st Place
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16.18Princeton University-0.870.0%1st Place
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10.11University of Vermont1.130.0%1st Place
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7.89University of Pennsylvania1.610.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reed McAllister | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 3.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Gus Macaulay | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 9.5% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Pilar Cundey | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 1.1% |
| Will Priebe | 11.4% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Ben Hosford | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 5.1% |
| Thomas Walker | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Duncan Craine | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Nathan Jensen | 13.5% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Owen | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 4.5% |
| Brady Parks | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 11.2% | 15.0% | 9.4% |
| Tiare Sierra | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 0.3% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 1.2% |
| Lilly Saffer | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 15.8% | 11.7% |
| Nicholas Lorenzen | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 12.8% | 59.4% |
| Cooper Smith | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 1.9% |
| John Majernik | 6.4% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.