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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+8.87vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45+6.43vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+2.13vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.69+3.20vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.30+3.72vs Predicted
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6Boston University1.44+2.28vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont1.13+2.48vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.61-0.42vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College0.66+2.25vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.12-4.06vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93-4.47vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.69-4.39vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.22-4.07vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.76-3.35vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College0.36-2.69vs Predicted
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16Florida State University0.60-4.42vs Predicted
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17Fordham University-0.91-1.11vs Predicted
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18Princeton University-0.87-2.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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8.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.0%1st Place
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5.13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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7.2Webb Institute1.690.1%1st Place
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8.72Cornell University1.300.1%1st Place
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8.28Boston University1.440.1%1st Place
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9.48University of Vermont1.130.0%1st Place
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7.58University of Pennsylvania1.610.1%1st Place
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11.25Connecticut College0.660.0%1st Place
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5.94Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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6.53U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.1%1st Place
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7.61Tufts University1.690.1%1st Place
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8.93George Washington University1.220.0%1st Place
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10.65SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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12.31Connecticut College0.360.0%1st Place
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11.58Florida State University0.600.0%1st Place
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15.89Fordham University-0.910.0%1st Place
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15.61Princeton University-0.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reed McAllister | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 1.0% |
| Thomas Walker | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Jensen | 14.0% | 12.7% | 12.5% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Pilar Cundey | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Tiare Sierra | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Cooper Smith | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
| John Majernik | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Liam Gronda | 3.2% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 6.5% | 2.6% |
| Will Priebe | 11.5% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 9.3% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Gus Macaulay | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 4.8% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Ben Hosford | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 4.8% | 2.3% |
| Lilly Saffer | 2.1% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 14.4% | 12.8% | 5.3% |
| Brady Parks | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 3.9% |
| Brendan Sheeran | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 23.4% | 44.3% |
| Nicholas Lorenzen | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 12.0% | 25.1% | 37.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.