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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.30+8.00vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+3.17vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.69+4.51vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont1.13+5.33vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93+1.41vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.69+1.27vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+2.73vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.61-0.47vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45-0.87vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.44-1.50vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University2.12-5.15vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College0.76-0.80vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.22-4.02vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College0.66-3.06vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College0.36-2.67vs Predicted
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16Florida State University0.60-4.41vs Predicted
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17Fordham University-0.91-1.11vs Predicted
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18Princeton University-0.87-2.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.0Cornell University1.300.1%1st Place
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5.17St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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7.51Webb Institute1.690.1%1st Place
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9.33University of Vermont1.130.0%1st Place
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6.41U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.1%1st Place
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7.27Tufts University1.690.1%1st Place
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9.73U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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7.53University of Pennsylvania1.610.1%1st Place
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8.13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.1%1st Place
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8.5Boston University1.440.1%1st Place
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5.85Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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11.2SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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8.98George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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10.94Connecticut College0.660.0%1st Place
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12.33Connecticut College0.360.0%1st Place
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11.59Florida State University0.600.0%1st Place
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15.89Fordham University-0.910.0%1st Place
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15.63Princeton University-0.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pilar Cundey | 5.5% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Nathan Jensen | 11.9% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Cooper Smith | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 10.5% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Gus Macaulay | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| John Majernik | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Walker | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Tiare Sierra | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Will Priebe | 12.0% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 7.3% | 2.8% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Liam Gronda | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 6.4% | 2.4% |
| Lilly Saffer | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 14.0% | 12.6% | 4.8% |
| Brady Parks | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 3.8% |
| Brendan Sheeran | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 24.2% | 43.8% |
| Nicholas Lorenzen | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 11.3% | 24.9% | 37.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.