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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+8.86vs Predicted
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2Boston University1.44+6.49vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45+5.43vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.69+3.19vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93+1.39vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.61+1.58vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.69+0.27vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34-2.96vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont1.13+0.38vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.22-0.65vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College0.36+1.35vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.66-0.41vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University2.12-7.31vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.76-3.35vs Predicted
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15Florida State University0.60-3.60vs Predicted
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16Fordham University-0.91-0.13vs Predicted
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17Princeton University-0.87-1.19vs Predicted
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18Cornell University1.30-9.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.86U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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8.49Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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8.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.1%1st Place
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7.19Tufts University1.690.1%1st Place
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6.39U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.1%1st Place
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7.58University of Pennsylvania1.610.1%1st Place
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7.27Webb Institute1.690.1%1st Place
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5.04St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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9.38University of Vermont1.130.0%1st Place
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9.35George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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12.35Connecticut College0.360.0%1st Place
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11.59Connecticut College0.660.0%1st Place
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5.69Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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10.65SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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11.4Florida State University0.600.0%1st Place
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15.87Fordham University-0.910.0%1st Place
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15.81Princeton University-0.870.0%1st Place
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8.66Cornell University1.300.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reed McAllister | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 0.6% |
| Tiare Sierra | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Walker | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Gus Macaulay | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 10.4% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| John Majernik | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Payne Donaldson | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Jensen | 13.8% | 15.8% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cooper Smith | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Lilly Saffer | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 14.7% | 13.4% | 4.3% |
| Liam Gronda | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 9.7% | 3.1% |
| Will Priebe | 12.4% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Hosford | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 5.3% | 2.4% |
| Brady Parks | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 3.4% |
| Brendan Sheeran | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 10.2% | 21.9% | 43.6% |
| Nicholas Lorenzen | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 9.3% | 25.6% | 40.6% |
| Pilar Cundey | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.