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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Saint Thomas0.60+3.80vs Predicted
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2University of Washington1.32+1.12vs Predicted
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3University of Washington-0.09+3.79vs Predicted
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4University of Washington0.72+0.61vs Predicted
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5Western Washington University-0.13+1.96vs Predicted
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6University of Oregon-0.46+2.03vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.31-1.57vs Predicted
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8University of Washington-1.04+1.37vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University0.08-2.66vs Predicted
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10Northwestern University-0.27-2.65vs Predicted
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11University of Washington-0.48-3.06vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-1.38-1.66vs Predicted
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13Western Washington University-1.72-1.98vs Predicted
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14University of Oregon-2.83-1.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.8University of Saint Thomas0.600.1%1st Place
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3.12University of Washington1.320.3%1st Place
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6.79University of Washington-0.090.1%1st Place
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4.61University of Washington0.720.1%1st Place
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6.96Western Washington University-0.130.0%1st Place
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8.03University of Oregon-0.460.0%1st Place
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5.43University of California at Santa Cruz0.310.1%1st Place
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9.37University of Washington-1.040.0%1st Place
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6.34Western Washington University0.080.1%1st Place
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7.35Northwestern University-0.270.0%1st Place
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7.94University of Washington-0.480.0%1st Place
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10.34University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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11.02Western Washington University-1.720.0%1st Place
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12.91University of Oregon-2.830.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachel Bartel | 12.2% | 14.9% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Stone | 27.6% | 20.4% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 8.9% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Smith | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Oliver Nairn | 12.2% | 15.9% | 14.3% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ellie Blakemore | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Emily Avey | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 6.4% | 1.3% |
| Carter Anderson | 10.9% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Enzo Dougherty | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 15.7% | 5.5% |
| Nathan Gerber | 6.9% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| George Warfel | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Jaden Unruh | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 1.1% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 17.2% | 19.9% | 9.8% |
| Peter Hall | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 16.1% | 26.8% | 16.5% |
| ella notdurft | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 7.8% | 15.6% | 63.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.