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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Western Washington University0.08+5.25vs Predicted
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2University of Washington0.72+2.47vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.31+2.64vs Predicted
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4Western Washington University-0.13+3.03vs Predicted
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5University of Oregon-0.46+3.08vs Predicted
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6University of Washington-0.48+2.10vs Predicted
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7University of Washington-0.09-0.35vs Predicted
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8University of Washington-1.04+1.50vs Predicted
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9University of Washington1.32-5.71vs Predicted
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10Northwestern University-0.27-2.57vs Predicted
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11Western Washington University-1.72+0.34vs Predicted
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12University of Oregon-2.09+0.02vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-1.38-2.62vs Predicted
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14University of Saint Thomas0.60-9.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.25Western Washington University0.080.1%1st Place
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4.47University of Washington0.720.1%1st Place
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5.64University of California at Santa Cruz0.310.1%1st Place
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7.03Western Washington University-0.130.1%1st Place
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8.08University of Oregon-0.460.0%1st Place
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8.1University of Washington-0.480.0%1st Place
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6.65University of Washington-0.090.1%1st Place
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9.5University of Washington-1.040.0%1st Place
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3.29University of Washington1.320.2%1st Place
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7.43Northwestern University-0.270.1%1st Place
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11.34Western Washington University-1.720.0%1st Place
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12.02University of Oregon-2.090.0%1st Place
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10.38University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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4.81University of Saint Thomas0.600.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Gerber | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Oliver Nairn | 14.6% | 14.4% | 14.5% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Carter Anderson | 9.8% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Ellie Blakemore | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 0.5% |
| Emily Avey | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 6.4% | 2.7% |
| Jaden Unruh | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 1.9% |
| Emily Smith | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| Enzo Dougherty | 3.0% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 14.2% | 13.9% | 8.9% |
| Benjamin Stone | 24.7% | 20.7% | 16.5% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Warfel | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| Peter Hall | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 13.9% | 23.4% | 26.1% |
| Molly McLeod | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 11.7% | 19.8% | 41.8% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 16.8% | 16.5% | 15.6% |
| Rachel Bartel | 13.3% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.