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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.31+1.85vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles-1.74+5.58vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley-0.64+0.76vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles-2.43+4.69vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine-0.66-1.07vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00-3.49vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine-2.14+0.59vs Predicted
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9University of California at Irvine-2.22+0.02vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz-0.59-5.24vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-2.69-0.56vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.73-1.48vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-1.70-5.38vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-2.68-3.79vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-2.78-4.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.85University of California at Santa Cruz0.310.3%1st Place
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7.58University of California at Los Angeles-1.740.0%1st Place
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4.76University of California at Berkeley-0.640.1%1st Place
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9.69University of California at Los Angeles-2.430.0%1st Place
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4.93University of California at Irvine-0.660.1%1st Place
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3.51Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.2%1st Place
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8.59University of California at Irvine-2.140.0%1st Place
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9.02University of California at Irvine-2.220.0%1st Place
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4.76University of California at Santa Cruz-0.590.1%1st Place
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10.44University of California at Los Angeles-2.690.0%1st Place
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10.52Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.730.0%1st Place
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7.62University of California at Irvine-1.700.0%1st Place
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10.21University of California at Davis-2.680.0%1st Place
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10.51University of California at Davis-2.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Anderson | 30.4% | 22.2% | 17.0% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Williams | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 1.3% |
| Ethan Lisle | 11.2% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Smith | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 14.3% | 12.2% | 10.3% |
| Nikita Swatek | 9.7% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 13.3% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 19.5% | 18.6% | 18.0% | 14.2% | 12.3% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gennis Marie Pilapil | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 5.4% |
| Matthew Stank | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 7.4% |
| Caden Domingo | 10.3% | 12.9% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 14.6% | 12.8% | 9.6% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alexandra Toaxen | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 15.6% | 18.4% |
| Paul Munsell | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 15.5% | 19.9% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.4% |
| Nathan Baer | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 13.8% | 13.8% | 16.0% |
| Chloe Lighterink | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 15.0% | 15.5% | 18.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.