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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.31+1.88vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00+1.33vs Predicted
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3University of California at Irvine-0.66+1.87vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz-0.59+0.68vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley-0.64-0.10vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine-2.22+3.16vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine-1.70+0.37vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-2.43+1.55vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.73+1.47vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-2.69+0.46vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-1.74-3.22vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine-2.14-3.12vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-2.68-2.78vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-2.78-3.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.88University of California at Santa Cruz0.310.3%1st Place
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3.33Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.2%1st Place
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4.87University of California at Irvine-0.660.1%1st Place
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4.68University of California at Santa Cruz-0.590.1%1st Place
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4.9University of California at Berkeley-0.640.1%1st Place
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9.16University of California at Irvine-2.220.0%1st Place
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7.37University of California at Irvine-1.700.0%1st Place
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9.55University of California at Los Angeles-2.430.0%1st Place
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10.47Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.730.0%1st Place
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10.46University of California at Los Angeles-2.690.0%1st Place
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7.78University of California at Los Angeles-1.740.0%1st Place
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8.88University of California at Irvine-2.140.0%1st Place
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10.22University of California at Davis-2.680.0%1st Place
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10.45University of California at Davis-2.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Anderson | 30.3% | 22.5% | 16.3% | 11.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 22.8% | 19.2% | 17.2% | 15.2% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikita Swatek | 9.4% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Caden Domingo | 9.7% | 12.5% | 15.1% | 13.9% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Lisle | 8.9% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 15.1% | 13.5% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Stank | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 7.9% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
| Katherine Smith | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 12.3% |
| Paul Munsell | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 13.4% | 17.0% | 16.5% |
| Alexandra Toaxen | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 17.1% | 17.5% |
| Liam Williams | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 2.1% |
| Gennis Marie Pilapil | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% |
| Nathan Baer | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 14.4% | 16.3% |
| Chloe Lighterink | 0.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 13.1% | 15.2% | 19.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.