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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Berkeley-0.64+3.80vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles-1.74+5.49vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00+0.41vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.31-1.12vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles-2.69+5.39vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine-0.66-1.00vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine-1.70-0.63vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-2.78+1.47vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-2.43-0.24vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.73-0.45vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.59-7.22vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-2.68-2.63vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-2.22-4.97vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-2.14-6.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.8University of California at Berkeley-0.640.1%1st Place
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7.49University of California at Los Angeles-1.740.0%1st Place
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3.41Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.2%1st Place
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2.88University of California at Santa Cruz0.310.3%1st Place
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10.39University of California at Los Angeles-2.690.0%1st Place
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5.0University of California at Irvine-0.660.1%1st Place
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7.37University of California at Irvine-1.700.0%1st Place
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10.47University of California at Davis-2.780.0%1st Place
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9.76University of California at Los Angeles-2.430.0%1st Place
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10.55Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.730.0%1st Place
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4.78University of California at Santa Cruz-0.590.1%1st Place
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10.37University of California at Davis-2.680.0%1st Place
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9.03University of California at Irvine-2.220.0%1st Place
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8.7University of California at Irvine-2.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Lisle | 10.1% | 13.4% | 13.7% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Liam Williams | 3.7% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Samuel Groom | 22.4% | 19.2% | 16.0% | 13.7% | 11.7% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carter Anderson | 27.1% | 25.3% | 16.2% | 12.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexandra Toaxen | 1.4% | 0.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 11.0% | 13.6% | 15.9% | 18.0% |
| Nikita Swatek | 10.4% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 13.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 3.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 1.5% |
| Chloe Lighterink | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 15.6% | 20.0% |
| Katherine Smith | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 13.9% | 12.6% | 9.9% |
| Paul Munsell | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 17.3% | 19.1% |
| Caden Domingo | 10.9% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 13.9% | 13.8% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Baer | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 13.4% | 18.6% |
| Matthew Stank | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% |
| Gennis Marie Pilapil | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 3.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.