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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.39+2.70vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.40+4.58vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.69+2.62vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.18+3.23vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.62+4.40vs Predicted
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6Brown University1.73+3.05vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.06+0.74vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.28+2.71vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin0.86+3.38vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.79+2.87vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.86-2.30vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University1.65-2.36vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University1.65-3.85vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston1.60-4.82vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island1.84-6.47vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-1.70vs Predicted
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17George Washington University1.26-5.99vs Predicted
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18University of Washington-0.09-2.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.7Stanford University3.390.2%1st Place
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6.58U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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5.62Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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7.23University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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9.4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.620.0%1st Place
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9.05Brown University1.730.0%1st Place
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7.74Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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10.71Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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12.38University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
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12.87Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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8.7University of South Florida1.860.1%1st Place
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9.64Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
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9.15North Carolina State University1.650.0%1st Place
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9.18College of Charleston1.600.0%1st Place
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8.53University of Rhode Island1.840.1%1st Place
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14.3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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11.01George Washington University1.260.0%1st Place
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15.2University of Washington-0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 23.4% | 20.6% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 6.5% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 11.6% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Julia Conneely | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 1.3% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| Lucy Meagher | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 3.1% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 8.5% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 12.8% | 14.7% | 11.0% |
| Kay Brunsvold | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Emily Allen | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Olivia Sowa | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Emily Alfortish | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 17.0% | 25.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 3.7% |
| Emily Smith | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 17.3% | 40.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.