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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.55+5.79vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.30+9.62vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.23+1.56vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.57+6.23vs Predicted
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5Florida State University0.97+7.39vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii1.15+5.95vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.82-1.35vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College1.49+2.53vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.75-3.20vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.03-1.30vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15-2.79vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.08+3.38vs Predicted
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13Harvard University2.47-6.18vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.44-3.47vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University0.12+0.01vs Predicted
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16Tulane University2.37-8.71vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-5.47vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12-10.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.79Georgetown University2.550.1%1st Place
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11.62Tufts University1.300.0%1st Place
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4.56Dartmouth College3.230.2%1st Place
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10.23Fordham University1.570.0%1st Place
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12.39Florida State University0.970.0%1st Place
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11.95University of Hawaii1.150.0%1st Place
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5.65Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
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10.53Bowdoin College1.490.0%1st Place
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5.8Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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8.7Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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8.21St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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15.38University of Vermont0.080.0%1st Place
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6.82Harvard University2.470.1%1st Place
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10.53Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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15.01Northwestern University0.120.0%1st Place
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7.29Tulane University2.370.1%1st Place
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11.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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7.99Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 7.9% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Haley Andreasen | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 4.7% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 15.5% | 14.8% | 14.7% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 1.9% |
| Katie Nelson | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 8.4% |
| Mercy Tangredi | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 6.2% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 11.5% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Phelan | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
| Carmen Cowles | 11.3% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eva Ermlich | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Madison Bashaw | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 19.6% | 38.4% |
| Cordelia Burn | 9.0% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 2.7% |
| Grace Bray | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 12.7% | 21.2% | 30.8% |
| Samantha Gardner | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 13.3% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 3.5% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.