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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.92+3.98vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.30+4.99vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94+5.31vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.13+3.24vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.55+0.89vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75+6.33vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.52+2.61vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+2.42vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University-0.80+7.32vs Predicted
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10Boston College3.07-5.48vs Predicted
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11Fordham University0.99+0.70vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.62-2.51vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.57-0.20vs Predicted
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14Boston University0.72-1.86vs Predicted
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15University of Hawaii1.09-3.82vs Predicted
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16Georgetown University2.37-9.42vs Predicted
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17Florida State University0.21-2.82vs Predicted
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18Tulane University2.38-11.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.98Yale University2.920.1%1st Place
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6.99Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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8.31Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.0%1st Place
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7.24Bowdoin College2.130.1%1st Place
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5.89Dartmouth College2.550.1%1st Place
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12.33St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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9.61Northeastern University1.520.0%1st Place
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10.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.0%1st Place
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16.32Northwestern University-0.800.0%1st Place
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4.52Boston College3.070.2%1st Place
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11.7Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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9.49Tufts University1.620.0%1st Place
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12.8University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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12.14Boston University0.720.0%1st Place
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11.18University of Hawaii1.090.0%1st Place
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6.58Georgetown University2.370.1%1st Place
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14.18Florida State University0.210.0%1st Place
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6.34Tulane University2.380.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Cowles | 13.9% | 13.9% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Burn | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Lucy Brock | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Lauren Russler | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sarah Young | 11.7% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 5.7% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| Anna Kovacs | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 14.8% | 56.8% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 16.3% | 14.7% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 3.5% |
| Ella Hubbard | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Caitlin Derby | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 13.8% | 8.0% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 4.7% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 2.2% |
| Kelly Bates | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Niah Ford | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 12.9% | 22.9% | 15.8% |
| Ava Anderson | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.