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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.13+6.58vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.92+2.91vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+7.72vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75+8.17vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.55+0.90vs Predicted
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6Boston College3.07-1.66vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.30-0.22vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.37-1.58vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont0.57+3.97vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.62-0.59vs Predicted
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11Tulane University2.38-4.37vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.52-2.04vs Predicted
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13University of Hawaii1.09-1.99vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94-6.17vs Predicted
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15Boston University0.72-2.59vs Predicted
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16Florida State University0.21-1.87vs Predicted
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17Fordham University0.99-5.38vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University-0.80-1.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.58Bowdoin College2.130.1%1st Place
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4.91Yale University2.920.1%1st Place
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10.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.0%1st Place
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12.17St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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5.9Dartmouth College2.550.1%1st Place
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4.34Boston College3.070.2%1st Place
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6.78Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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6.42Georgetown University2.370.1%1st Place
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12.97University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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9.41Tufts University1.620.0%1st Place
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6.63Tulane University2.380.1%1st Place
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9.96Northeastern University1.520.0%1st Place
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11.01University of Hawaii1.090.0%1st Place
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7.83Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.1%1st Place
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12.41Boston University0.720.0%1st Place
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14.13Florida State University0.210.0%1st Place
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11.62Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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16.21Northwestern University-0.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Russler | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Emma Cowles | 11.6% | 13.0% | 14.1% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 1.3% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 5.6% |
| Sarah Young | 10.9% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 17.4% | 15.2% | 14.4% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Burn | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Bates | 8.6% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin Derby | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 13.5% | 13.9% | 7.6% |
| Ella Hubbard | 4.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Ava Anderson | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 2.7% |
| Lucy Brock | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 5.4% |
| Niah Ford | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 21.8% | 15.4% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 8.6% | 2.9% |
| Anna Kovacs | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 14.4% | 56.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.