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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island3.23+5.54vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University2.17+8.73vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.22+3.49vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.47+1.43vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.99+2.14vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.50+3.14vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.51+2.09vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+3.90vs Predicted
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9University of Miami2.66-0.55vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.54-4.51vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-2.51vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.99-4.48vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute1.69-0.79vs Predicted
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14University of Hawaii1.53-1.43vs Predicted
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15University of Southern California1.47-1.93vs Predicted
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16Boston College2.53-6.92vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida1.27-3.11vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University1.23-4.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.54University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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10.73Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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6.49Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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5.43Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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7.14Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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9.14Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
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9.09Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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11.9University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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8.45University of Miami2.660.0%1st Place
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5.49Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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8.49Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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7.52U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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12.21Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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12.57University of Hawaii1.530.0%1st Place
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13.07University of Southern California1.470.0%1st Place
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9.08Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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13.89University of South Florida1.270.0%1st Place
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13.75Northwestern University1.230.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerem Erkmen | 8.7% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Owen Bannasch | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 2.8% |
| Mariner Fagan | 9.0% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Robert Bragg | 13.2% | 13.3% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 8.7% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 8.2% |
| Atlee Kohl | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 13.7% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 1.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 10.8% |
| Trey Summers | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 12.6% |
| Luke Harris | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 15.6% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.6% |
| Andreas Keswater | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 12.7% | 16.2% | 22.3% |
| Jake Weinstein | 1.8% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 15.3% | 21.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.