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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.53+8.25vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+6.62vs Predicted
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3University of South Florida1.27+10.88vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.22+2.36vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.47+0.51vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island3.23+0.40vs Predicted
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7Northwestern University1.23+6.73vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.69+4.15vs Predicted
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9Stanford University2.99-1.81vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California1.47+3.24vs Predicted
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11Tulane University2.50-1.73vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.51-2.48vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara1.77-1.15vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.99-7.02vs Predicted
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15University of Miami2.66-6.53vs Predicted
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16Harvard University3.54-10.61vs Predicted
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17University of Hawaii1.53-4.03vs Predicted
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18Jacksonville University2.17-7.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.25Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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8.62Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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13.88University of South Florida1.270.0%1st Place
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6.36Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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5.51Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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6.4University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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13.73Northwestern University1.230.0%1st Place
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12.15Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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7.19Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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13.24University of Southern California1.470.0%1st Place
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9.27Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
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9.52Fordham University2.510.0%1st Place
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11.85University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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6.98U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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8.47University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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5.39Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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12.97University of Hawaii1.530.0%1st Place
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10.23Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Kirkman | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Andreas Keswater | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 16.0% | 21.5% |
| Mariner Fagan | 9.9% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Robert Bragg | 13.9% | 13.6% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Jake Weinstein | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 16.0% | 21.2% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 7.8% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Luke Harris | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 16.8% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 8.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.6% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Trey Summers | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 15.6% |
| Owen Bannasch | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.