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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island3.23+5.43vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.47+3.50vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.03+4.10vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.99+3.02vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.50+3.98vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University2.17+4.43vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.99+0.14vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+3.79vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University3.22-2.88vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.51-0.75vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-2.60vs Predicted
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12University of Miami2.66-3.27vs Predicted
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13University of Hawaii1.53-0.38vs Predicted
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14Boston College2.53-5.33vs Predicted
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15University of Southern California1.47-2.02vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida1.27-2.21vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University1.23-3.05vs Predicted
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18Webb Institute1.69-5.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.43University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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5.5Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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7.1Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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7.02Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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8.98Tulane University2.500.0%1st Place
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10.43Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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7.14U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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11.79University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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6.12Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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9.25Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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8.4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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8.73University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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12.62University of Hawaii1.530.0%1st Place
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8.67Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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12.98University of Southern California1.470.0%1st Place
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13.79University of South Florida1.270.0%1st Place
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13.95Northwestern University1.230.0%1st Place
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12.09Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerem Erkmen | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Robert Bragg | 10.3% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Thad Lettsome | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| Owen Bannasch | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 3.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.5% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 10.3% | 7.5% |
| Mariner Fagan | 10.2% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 6.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Trey Summers | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 13.8% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
| Luke Harris | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 15.4% |
| Andreas Keswater | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 14.1% | 22.0% |
| Jake Weinstein | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 17.6% | 23.6% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.