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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.53+7.87vs Predicted
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2University of Miami2.66+6.36vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.99+4.00vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.50+4.66vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.22+1.02vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.51+2.74vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.99-0.14vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.00vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+2.73vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.03-3.06vs Predicted
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11Tulane University2.50-2.10vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island3.23-5.72vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida1.27+0.47vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California1.47-1.40vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University2.17-4.90vs Predicted
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16University of Hawaii1.53-3.26vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University1.23-3.17vs Predicted
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18Webb Institute1.69-6.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.87Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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8.36University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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7.0U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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8.66Dartmouth College2.500.1%1st Place
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6.02Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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8.74Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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6.86Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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8.0Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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11.73University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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6.94Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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8.9Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
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6.28University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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13.47University of South Florida1.270.0%1st Place
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12.6University of Southern California1.470.0%1st Place
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10.1Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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12.74University of Hawaii1.530.0%1st Place
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13.83Northwestern University1.230.0%1st Place
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11.9Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Kirkman | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.0% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| James Paul | 6.0% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% |
| Mariner Fagan | 11.4% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 8.3% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 6.9% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 10.9% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 11.8% | 15.0% | 21.2% |
| Luke Harris | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 13.6% | 12.9% |
| Owen Bannasch | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 2.9% |
| Trey Summers | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 14.6% |
| Jake Weinstein | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 14.0% | 25.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.3% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 9.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.