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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+5.91vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.51+6.81vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+5.13vs Predicted
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4University of Miami2.66+3.89vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.99+1.73vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island3.23-0.08vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.53+1.52vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.50+0.57vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida1.24+4.49vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.50-1.05vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University1.65+1.14vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University3.22-5.84vs Predicted
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13University of Hawaii1.53-0.74vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara1.77-2.75vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute1.54-2.60vs Predicted
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16Harvard University3.03-9.36vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University1.23-3.31vs Predicted
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18University of Southern California1.47-5.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.91U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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8.81Fordham University2.510.0%1st Place
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8.13Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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7.89University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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6.73Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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5.92University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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8.52Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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8.57Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
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13.49University of South Florida1.240.0%1st Place
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8.95Dartmouth College2.500.1%1st Place
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12.14Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
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6.16Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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12.26University of Hawaii1.530.0%1st Place
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11.25University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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12.4Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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6.64Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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13.69Northwestern University1.230.0%1st Place
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12.54University of Southern California1.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Atlee Kohl | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 10.3% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.6% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 12.2% | 15.4% | 18.8% |
| James Paul | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Emily Allen | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 10.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 10.4% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Trey Summers | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 11.8% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 5.8% |
| Everett Botwinick | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 12.2% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jake Weinstein | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 14.2% | 23.2% |
| Luke Harris | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 12.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.