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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.03+5.76vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+9.87vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.90vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.22+1.83vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida1.27+8.28vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island3.23-0.11vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.53+1.52vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.50+0.59vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California1.47+3.72vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.51-1.12vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.54+1.58vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.50-3.02vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University1.65-1.18vs Predicted
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14Stanford University2.99-7.45vs Predicted
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15University of Hawaii1.53-2.62vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-8.02vs Predicted
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17University of Miami2.66-8.89vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University1.23-4.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.76Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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11.87University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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6.9U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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5.83Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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13.28University of South Florida1.270.0%1st Place
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5.89University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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8.52Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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8.59Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
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12.72University of Southern California1.470.0%1st Place
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8.88Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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12.58Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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8.98Dartmouth College2.500.0%1st Place
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11.82Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
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6.55Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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12.38University of Hawaii1.530.0%1st Place
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7.98Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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8.11University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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13.37Northwestern University1.230.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Callahan | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 8.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.3% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 12.2% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Andreas Keswater | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 20.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.8% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Thad Lettsome | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Luke Harris | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 13.6% | 12.3% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 5.8% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Everett Botwinick | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 14.1% |
| James Paul | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Emily Allen | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.0% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 9.2% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Trey Summers | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 13.9% | 10.8% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Atlee Kohl | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Jake Weinstein | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 13.7% | 19.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.