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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+10.75vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island3.23+4.04vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.99+3.93vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University1.65+7.90vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.51+3.57vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.53+2.55vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.50+1.67vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.03-1.46vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-1.12vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University3.22-3.88vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.50-2.21vs Predicted
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12University of Miami2.66-3.63vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California1.47-0.40vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute1.54-1.85vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.99-8.36vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida1.27-2.46vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University1.23-3.35vs Predicted
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18University of Hawaii1.53-5.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.75University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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6.04University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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6.93Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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11.9Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
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8.57Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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8.55Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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8.67Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
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6.54Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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7.88Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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6.12Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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8.79Dartmouth College2.500.1%1st Place
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8.37University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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12.6University of Southern California1.470.0%1st Place
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12.15Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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6.64U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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13.54University of South Florida1.270.0%1st Place
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13.65Northwestern University1.230.0%1st Place
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12.33University of Hawaii1.530.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 8.8% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 9.1% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Emily Allen | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 9.7% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 9.3% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Mariner Fagan | 12.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| James Paul | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| Atlee Kohl | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Luke Harris | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 12.5% | 13.6% |
| Everett Botwinick | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 9.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.7% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Andreas Keswater | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 20.4% |
| Jake Weinstein | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 15.0% | 22.8% |
| Trey Summers | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 10.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.