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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.47+4.79vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.22+4.69vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+9.34vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.51+5.06vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.26vs Predicted
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6Stanford University2.99+1.35vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+1.53vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.91-0.48vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.54-3.73vs Predicted
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10Tulane University2.50-0.52vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island3.23-4.41vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.69+0.66vs Predicted
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13University of Miami2.66-4.50vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California1.47-1.17vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University2.17-4.51vs Predicted
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16University of Hawaii1.53-2.99vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida1.27-3.11vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University1.23-4.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.79Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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6.69Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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12.34University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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9.06Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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7.26U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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7.35Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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8.53Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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7.52Boston College2.910.1%1st Place
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5.27Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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9.48Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
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6.59University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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12.66Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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8.5University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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12.83University of Southern California1.470.0%1st Place
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10.49Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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13.01University of Hawaii1.530.0%1st Place
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13.89University of South Florida1.270.0%1st Place
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13.76Northwestern University1.230.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Bragg | 11.4% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 9.4% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 13.2% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 9.3% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 13.7% | 11.2% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Luke Harris | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 14.1% |
| Owen Bannasch | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.4% |
| Trey Summers | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 15.1% | 13.5% |
| Andreas Keswater | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 16.2% | 22.6% |
| Jake Weinstein | 1.8% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 13.5% | 21.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.