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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.50+8.07vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.54+3.18vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.99+4.13vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island3.23+1.98vs Predicted
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5Boston College2.91+2.27vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.45+3.09vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+1.15vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University2.17+2.14vs Predicted
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9Stanford University2.99-2.08vs Predicted
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10University of Miami2.66-1.45vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+0.94vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.69+0.47vs Predicted
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13Northwestern University1.23+0.59vs Predicted
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14University of Hawaii1.53-1.57vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University2.79-7.37vs Predicted
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16Fordham University2.51-7.07vs Predicted
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17University of Southern California1.47-3.88vs Predicted
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18University of South Florida1.27-4.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.07Dartmouth College2.500.1%1st Place
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5.18Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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7.13U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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5.98University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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7.27Boston College2.910.1%1st Place
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9.09Tulane University2.450.1%1st Place
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8.15Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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10.14Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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6.92Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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8.55University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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11.94University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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12.47Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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13.59Northwestern University1.230.0%1st Place
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12.43University of Hawaii1.530.0%1st Place
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7.63Georgetown University2.790.1%1st Place
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8.93Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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13.12University of Southern California1.470.0%1st Place
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13.4University of South Florida1.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Paul | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.6% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.5% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 7.5% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Kelly Holthus | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| Owen Bannasch | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.2% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 7.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 8.7% |
| Payne Donaldson | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 12.0% |
| Jake Weinstein | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 13.8% | 22.6% |
| Trey Summers | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 13.9% | 11.8% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| Luke Harris | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 15.1% | 15.9% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 19.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.