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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.51+7.47vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.87+5.06vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.23+2.73vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University0.94+9.74vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.53-0.34vs Predicted
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6University of Miami2.27+3.21vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36+1.82vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.67-0.46vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.55-0.96vs Predicted
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10Tulane University2.94-3.12vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.54-2.72vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.35-2.81vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island2.10-3.35vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida0.54+0.70vs Predicted
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15University of Hawaii2.38-6.34vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.91-5.38vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University0.44-1.80vs Predicted
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18University of Southern California0.64-3.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.47University of California at Santa Barbara2.510.1%1st Place
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7.06Harvard University2.870.1%1st Place
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5.73Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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13.74Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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4.66Stanford University3.530.2%1st Place
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9.21University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
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8.82Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
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7.54Boston College2.670.1%1st Place
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8.04U. S. Naval Academy2.550.1%1st Place
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6.88Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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8.28Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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9.19Fordham University2.350.0%1st Place
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9.65University of Rhode Island2.100.0%1st Place
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14.7University of South Florida0.540.0%1st Place
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8.66University of Hawaii2.380.1%1st Place
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10.62Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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15.2Northwestern University0.440.0%1st Place
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14.55University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Boeger | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Robby Meek | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 10.6% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew King | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 11.3% | 15.5% | 17.4% | 15.5% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 18.2% | 16.4% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Robert Ulmer | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Peter Joslin | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jack Welburn | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Diego Escobar | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Jacob Zils | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.0% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Brilan Christopher | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 21.4% | 24.5% |
| Erik Anderson | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 1.5% |
| Nicholas Chesemore | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 21.6% | 32.5% |
| Morgana Manti | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 10.6% | 16.1% | 19.4% | 22.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.