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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.42+4.78vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.49+7.36vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+4.34vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+4.40vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.00+2.09vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.62+2.58vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.69+1.29vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.83-0.32vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.12-2.45vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.24+4.04vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College1.10+3.24vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-3.67vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University2.12-2.55vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.90-2.85vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston3.10-8.39vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin1.25-2.15vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University2.01-5.82vs Predicted
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18Boston University1.69-5.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.78Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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9.36Bowdoin College2.490.0%1st Place
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7.34St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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7.09Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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8.58Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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8.29Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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7.68University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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6.55Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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14.04Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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14.24SUNY Maritime College1.100.0%1st Place
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8.33U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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10.45Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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11.15George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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6.61College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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13.85University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
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11.18North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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12.08Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Nelson | 11.9% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 3.9% | 3.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.7% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Will Murray | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 8.3% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Trevor Davis | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Bridget Green | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Jordan Bruce | 6.6% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Jack Egan | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Diogo Silva | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 17.3% | 24.0% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 12.3% | 17.1% | 27.6% |
| Colman Schofield | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Will Priebe | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.6% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 5.2% |
| Noah Zittrer | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 17.8% | 20.9% |
| Adam Larson | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 4.6% |
| Noah Robitshek | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 9.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.