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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+6.43vs Predicted
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2North Carolina State University2.01+9.44vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.62+5.92vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+4.46vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.83+2.79vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.18+4.40vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin1.25+6.90vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.40-2.39vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.69+3.38vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-1.71vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston3.10-4.13vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.12-0.97vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.32-3.22vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.10+0.09vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College2.49-5.80vs Predicted
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16Yale University3.12-9.27vs Predicted
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17George Washington University1.90-5.30vs Predicted
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18Roger Williams University3.00-11.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.43St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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11.44North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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8.92Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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8.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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7.79University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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10.4Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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13.9University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
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5.61Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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12.38Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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8.29U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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6.87College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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11.03Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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9.78Cornell University2.320.0%1st Place
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14.09SUNY Maritime College1.100.0%1st Place
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9.2Bowdoin College2.490.1%1st Place
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6.73Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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11.7George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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6.96Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Adam Larson | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 5.4% |
| Trevor Davis | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% |
| Will Murray | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 15.9% | 26.1% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 12.5% | 12.9% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 11.0% |
| Colman Schofield | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| Noah Zittrer | 10.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Will Priebe | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 4.9% |
| Sophia Devling | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 1.9% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 2.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 14.6% | 30.8% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| Jack Egan | 8.6% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 9.3% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.