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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.77+7.20vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.40+3.73vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.83+4.91vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.45+5.14vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.18+5.30vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+2.48vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+0.93vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.69+0.19vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston3.10-2.42vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.00-2.71vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.23-0.72vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.69+0.61vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University2.00-2.09vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin1.25-0.47vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-8.00vs Predicted
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16North Carolina State University2.01-4.86vs Predicted
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17George Washington University1.90-5.37vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College1.10-3.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.2Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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5.73Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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7.91University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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9.14Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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10.3Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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8.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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7.93U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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8.19Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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6.58College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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7.29Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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10.28Tufts University2.230.0%1st Place
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12.61Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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10.91Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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13.53University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
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7.0St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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11.14North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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11.63George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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14.16SUNY Maritime College1.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Pinckney | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 10.1% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Jordan Bruce | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bonauto | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 4.3% |
| Will Murray | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| Colman Schofield | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Bridget Green | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Noah Zittrer | 9.2% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 4.7% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 3.3% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 14.3% | 14.5% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% |
| Charlie Herrick | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 14.8% | 23.7% |
| Owen Hennessey | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Adam Larson | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.2% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 6.9% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 16.8% | 28.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.