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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+7.31vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+6.42vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin1.25+10.67vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.62+4.09vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.83+2.36vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.77+1.54vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.40-1.65vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston3.10-1.74vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.69+2.87vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.00+0.91vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.69-2.98vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.30-2.14vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.18-3.19vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College2.45-5.45vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-8.29vs Predicted
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16George Washington University1.22-2.39vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University1.48-4.21vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College1.10-4.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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8.42U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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13.67University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
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8.09Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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7.36University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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7.54Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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5.35Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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6.26College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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11.87Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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10.91Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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8.02Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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9.86Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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9.81Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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8.55Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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6.71St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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13.61George Washington University1.220.0%1st Place
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12.79North Carolina State University1.480.0%1st Place
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13.86SUNY Maritime College1.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 12.1% | 14.9% | 22.2% |
| Trevor Davis | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Jordan Bruce | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 13.6% | 13.1% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Noah Zittrer | 10.3% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.7% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 4.2% |
| Bridget Green | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 4.0% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.3% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 2.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 9.1% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 15.4% | 20.6% |
| Robert Chase | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 13.4% | 14.0% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 13.1% | 16.1% | 21.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.