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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+6.85vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.43+2.89vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.33+2.27vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.34+4.68vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.10+0.95vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.46+2.37vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston2.35+1.75vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.37+4.47vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.05+0.89vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-1.12vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College0.76+3.61vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College2.81-4.74vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University1.46-0.90vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin1.18-1.03vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.93-4.61vs Predicted
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16Tufts University2.43-7.54vs Predicted
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17George Washington University1.39-4.36vs Predicted
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18Boston University1.60-6.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.85U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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4.89Yale University3.430.1%1st Place
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5.27Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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8.68Cornell University2.340.1%1st Place
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5.95Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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8.37St. Mary's College of Maryland2.460.1%1st Place
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8.75College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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12.47Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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9.89University of Pennsylvania2.050.0%1st Place
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8.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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14.61SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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7.26Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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12.1North Carolina State University1.460.0%1st Place
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12.97University of Wisconsin1.180.0%1st Place
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10.39Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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8.46Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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12.64George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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11.58Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 12.9% | 14.8% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 11.8% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Winborne Majette | 5.3% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| Carlos de Castro | 11.2% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Anderson | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.3% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 13.5% | 10.9% |
| Benjamin Honig | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 9.4% | 18.1% | 33.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 8.9% | 5.7% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 9.3% |
| Gavin Dempsey | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 16.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 3.4% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 11.8% |
| Porter Bell | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.