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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+6.90vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.10+4.05vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.93+7.67vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston2.35+4.62vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.43-0.14vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.81+1.01vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.33-1.79vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.43+0.31vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-0.51vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University1.46+2.49vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.37+1.66vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.46-3.37vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.60-1.46vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.34-5.53vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.05-5.13vs Predicted
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16George Washington University1.39-3.49vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin1.18-3.67vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.76-3.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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6.05Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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10.67Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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8.62College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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4.86Yale University3.430.2%1st Place
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7.01Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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5.21Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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8.31Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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8.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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12.49North Carolina State University1.460.0%1st Place
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12.66Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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8.63St. Mary's College of Maryland2.460.1%1st Place
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11.54Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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8.47Cornell University2.340.1%1st Place
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9.87University of Pennsylvania2.050.0%1st Place
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12.51George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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13.33University of Wisconsin1.180.0%1st Place
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14.38SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Carlos de Castro | 9.1% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 3.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.0% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 16.6% | 15.5% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 13.4% | 13.7% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 11.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 13.4% | 13.0% |
| Charlie Anderson | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Porter Bell | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.3% |
| Winborne Majette | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Benjamin Honig | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.3% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 12.1% |
| Gavin Dempsey | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 12.2% | 14.8% | 18.2% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 16.6% | 28.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.