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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.10+5.10vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.43+2.94vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.43+5.54vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.05+5.73vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.46+3.15vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+1.61vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.81-0.10vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+0.39vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.33-3.99vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston2.35-1.07vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.93-0.54vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.39+0.67vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin1.18-0.08vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.76+0.19vs Predicted
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15North Carolina State University1.31-2.34vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University1.37-3.42vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.36-4.34vs Predicted
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18Cornell University2.34-9.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.1Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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4.94Yale University3.430.1%1st Place
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8.54Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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9.73University of Pennsylvania2.050.0%1st Place
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8.15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.460.1%1st Place
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7.61U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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6.9Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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8.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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5.01Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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8.93College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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10.46Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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12.67George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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12.92University of Wisconsin1.180.0%1st Place
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14.19SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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12.66North Carolina State University1.310.0%1st Place
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12.58Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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12.66Boston University1.360.0%1st Place
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8.55Cornell University2.340.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos de Castro | 10.6% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 12.5% | 13.6% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Benjamin Honig | 4.0% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
| Charlie Anderson | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Thomas Hall | 8.4% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Guthrie Braun | 14.1% | 14.0% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 3.6% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 12.5% |
| Gavin Dempsey | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 15.3% | 14.4% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 14.9% | 28.2% |
| Benjamin Usher | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 11.4% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 11.9% |
| Nathan Selian | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 12.1% |
| Winborne Majette | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.