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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.10+5.10vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.43+2.89vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.46+5.45vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+4.42vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.43+3.32vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+1.59vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.33-1.84vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston2.35+0.54vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.31+3.67vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.37+2.69vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.36+1.58vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.93-1.34vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.39-0.77vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin1.18-1.16vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College2.81-8.15vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College0.76-1.47vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.34-8.14vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania2.05-8.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.1Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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4.89Yale University3.430.1%1st Place
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8.45St. Mary's College of Maryland2.460.1%1st Place
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8.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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8.32Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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7.59U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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5.16Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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8.54College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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12.67North Carolina State University1.310.0%1st Place
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12.69Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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12.58Boston University1.360.0%1st Place
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10.66Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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12.23George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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12.84University of Wisconsin1.180.0%1st Place
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6.85Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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14.53SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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8.86Cornell University2.340.1%1st Place
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9.62University of Pennsylvania2.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos de Castro | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 13.3% | 14.0% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Anderson | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Guthrie Braun | 13.8% | 12.5% | 12.9% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 11.8% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 14.3% | 10.9% |
| Nathan Selian | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 12.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 3.6% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 10.7% |
| Gavin Dempsey | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 13.5% | 14.6% |
| Thomas Hall | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 16.6% | 30.3% |
| Winborne Majette | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Benjamin Honig | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 1.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.