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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.29+4.42vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.43+6.64vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.46+5.53vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.47+4.13vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College0.76+9.46vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston2.35+2.69vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.10-1.16vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.81-1.13vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-0.45vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+1.96vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.93-0.30vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin1.18+1.64vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.60-1.38vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University1.31-1.42vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University2.03-4.97vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63-8.33vs Predicted
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17Brown University2.29-7.90vs Predicted
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18Cornell University2.34-9.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.42Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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8.64Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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8.53St. Mary's College of Maryland2.460.1%1st Place
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8.13University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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14.46SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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8.69College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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5.84Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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6.87Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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8.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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11.96St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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10.7Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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13.64University of Wisconsin1.180.0%1st Place
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11.62Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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12.58North Carolina State University1.310.0%1st Place
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10.03Northeastern University2.030.0%1st Place
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7.67U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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9.1Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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8.56Cornell University2.340.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 13.7% | 13.4% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Charlie Anderson | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Jackson McAliley | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 14.7% | 34.6% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Carlos de Castro | 11.8% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 8.3% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 4.4% |
| Gavin Dempsey | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 11.3% | 16.8% | 21.7% |
| Porter Bell | 3.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 7.4% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 13.6% | 13.8% |
| Eva Ermlich | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 2.9% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 6.7% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Winborne Majette | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.