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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.29+4.42vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.29+7.21vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.46+5.55vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+3.53vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.10+0.86vs Predicted
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6University of Wisconsin1.18+7.36vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.93+3.46vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.81-1.16vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston2.35-0.32vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College0.76+4.82vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.43-2.48vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.60+0.10vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University1.31-0.30vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.34-5.58vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-6.47vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania2.47-7.72vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University2.03-6.80vs Predicted
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18St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62-6.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.42Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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9.21Brown University2.290.0%1st Place
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8.55St. Mary's College of Maryland2.460.1%1st Place
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7.53U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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5.86Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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13.36University of Wisconsin1.180.0%1st Place
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10.46Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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6.84Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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8.68College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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14.82SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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8.52Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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12.1Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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12.7North Carolina State University1.310.0%1st Place
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8.42Cornell University2.340.1%1st Place
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8.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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8.28University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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10.2Northeastern University2.030.0%1st Place
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11.51St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 13.4% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| Charlie Anderson | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Carlos de Castro | 11.9% | 12.9% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Dempsey | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 17.6% | 18.2% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 3.6% |
| Thomas Hall | 9.1% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 16.4% | 37.3% |
| Ben Mueller | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Porter Bell | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 10.5% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 15.1% | 13.1% |
| Winborne Majette | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Jackson McAliley | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Eva Ermlich | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 3.4% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.