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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.33+4.19vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.29+3.25vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+4.70vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.46+4.03vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston2.35+3.51vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.81+0.82vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.47+1.07vs Predicted
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8North Carolina State University1.46+4.05vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.34-0.46vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin1.18+3.34vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.43-2.57vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62-0.16vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University1.86-2.61vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.60-2.75vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.93-4.79vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-7.53vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University1.37-4.40vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.76-3.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.19Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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5.25Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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7.7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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8.03St. Mary's College of Maryland2.460.1%1st Place
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8.51College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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6.82Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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8.07University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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12.05North Carolina State University1.460.0%1st Place
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8.54Cornell University2.340.0%1st Place
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13.34University of Wisconsin1.180.0%1st Place
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8.43Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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11.84St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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10.39Roger Williams University1.860.0%1st Place
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11.25Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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10.21Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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8.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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12.6Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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14.32SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guthrie Braun | 14.1% | 12.7% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stephan Baker | 13.0% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 13.2% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.1% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Charlie Anderson | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| Thomas Hall | 8.7% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Jackson McAliley | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 10.6% |
| Winborne Majette | 4.7% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Gavin Dempsey | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 16.4% | 17.7% |
| Ben Mueller | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 8.6% |
| Jed Lory | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.1% |
| Porter Bell | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.8% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 12.7% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 15.7% | 29.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.