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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.33+4.16vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston2.35+6.78vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.81+3.90vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.43+4.16vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.47+3.00vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.29-0.84vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University1.86+3.54vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.46+0.10vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63-1.67vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+1.77vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-2.49vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.34-3.07vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University1.46-1.01vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.93-4.01vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.60-3.41vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University1.37-3.42vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College0.76-2.43vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.18-5.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.16Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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8.78College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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6.9Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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8.16Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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8.0University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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5.16Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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10.54Roger Williams University1.860.0%1st Place
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8.1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.460.1%1st Place
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7.33U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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11.77St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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8.51Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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8.93Cornell University2.340.1%1st Place
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11.99North Carolina State University1.460.0%1st Place
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9.99Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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11.59Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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12.58Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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14.57SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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12.95University of Wisconsin1.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guthrie Braun | 13.6% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Thomas Hall | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Jackson McAliley | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Stephan Baker | 14.1% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jed Lory | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 4.2% |
| Charlie Anderson | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 8.3% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Winborne Majette | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 10.3% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.3% |
| Porter Bell | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 7.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 12.7% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 10.7% | 15.7% | 33.7% |
| Gavin Dempsey | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 13.1% | 15.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.