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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+6.62vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+4.84vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.43+4.68vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.75+2.53vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University1.86+4.63vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.46+1.77vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.34+1.03vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston2.35-0.22vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.81-2.54vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+0.54vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.33-6.28vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.47-4.52vs Predicted
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13Boston University0.16+1.89vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.93-4.28vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.37-3.48vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin1.18-3.72vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College0.76-3.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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6.84U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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7.68Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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6.53Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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9.63Roger Williams University1.860.0%1st Place
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7.77St. Mary's College of Maryland2.460.1%1st Place
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8.03Cornell University2.340.1%1st Place
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7.78College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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6.46Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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10.54St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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4.72Brown University3.330.2%1st Place
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7.48University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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14.89Boston University0.160.0%1st Place
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9.72Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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11.52Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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12.28University of Wisconsin1.180.0%1st Place
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13.51SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Carmen Cowles | 9.3% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Jed Lory | 3.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 1.6% |
| Charlie Anderson | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Winborne Majette | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 7.6% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.5% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 3.4% |
| Guthrie Braun | 17.2% | 15.2% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McAliley | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Richard Kalich | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 9.0% | 18.2% | 49.4% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 4.6% | 1.9% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 14.3% | 13.4% | 7.2% |
| Gavin Dempsey | 2.1% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 15.5% | 11.1% |
| Ben Hosford | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 22.5% | 23.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.