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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.54+6.20vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.00+7.52vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.99+6.59vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.42+3.38vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.47+2.23vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+4.30vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.53+4.33vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.99+1.26vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+1.83vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.12-0.96vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-1.51vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island3.23-3.31vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University3.22-4.84vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College2.49-2.89vs Predicted
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15Tufts University2.62-4.09vs Predicted
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16Tulane University2.50-4.44vs Predicted
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17College of Charleston3.10-8.04vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-7.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.2Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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9.52Roger Williams University3.000.0%1st Place
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9.59U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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7.38Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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7.23Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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10.3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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11.33Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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9.26Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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10.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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9.04Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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9.49St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.69University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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8.16Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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11.11Bowdoin College2.490.0%1st Place
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10.91Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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11.56Tulane University2.500.0%1st Place
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8.96College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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10.43Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachlain McGranahan | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.6% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% |
| Connor Nelson | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Robert Bragg | 9.1% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.1% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 11.3% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% |
| Will Murray | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% |
| Jack Egan | 7.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 2.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.6% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 11.6% |
| Trevor Davis | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.8% |
| Thad Lettsome | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 13.7% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 2.9% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.