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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.47+6.46vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.22+6.55vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+7.57vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.42+3.41vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.99+4.27vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.12+2.79vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.54-0.03vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+2.51vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.00+0.29vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-0.39vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.62+0.12vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.99-2.27vs Predicted
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13Boston College2.53-1.86vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston3.10-5.50vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-4.19vs Predicted
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16Tulane University2.50-4.50vs Predicted
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17University of Rhode Island3.23-8.57vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College2.49-6.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.46Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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8.55Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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10.57U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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7.41Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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9.27Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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8.79Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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6.97Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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10.51Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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9.29Roger Williams University3.000.0%1st Place
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9.61St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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11.12Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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9.73U. S. Naval Academy2.990.0%1st Place
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11.14Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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8.5College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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10.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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11.5Tulane University2.500.0%1st Place
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8.43University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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11.32Bowdoin College2.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Bragg | 7.7% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Mariner Fagan | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% |
| Colman Schofield | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 5.4% |
| Connor Nelson | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.2% |
| Jack Egan | 6.9% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 3.3% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.7% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 11.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 11.5% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Will Murray | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.7% |
| Thad Lettsome | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 13.3% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 11.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.