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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+9.72vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.91+8.17vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.42+4.94vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island3.23+4.40vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.12+3.92vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.53+1.21vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.22+1.46vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+1.50vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+2.04vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College3.47-2.30vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston3.10-1.76vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College2.45+0.23vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University3.00-3.63vs Predicted
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14Tulane University2.50-2.68vs Predicted
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15Harvard University3.54-7.88vs Predicted
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16Tufts University2.62-4.71vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy2.99-7.31vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-7.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.72U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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10.17Boston College2.910.0%1st Place
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7.94Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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8.4University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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8.92Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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7.21Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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8.46Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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9.5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.0%1st Place
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11.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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7.7Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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9.24College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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12.23Bowdoin College2.450.0%1st Place
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9.37Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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11.32Tulane University2.500.0%1st Place
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7.12Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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11.29Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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9.69U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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10.66Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.7% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 4.4% |
| Connor Nelson | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% |
| Jack Egan | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.3% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 8.9% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% |
| Owen Hennessey | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% |
| Will Murray | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.4% |
| Robert Bragg | 8.5% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Noah Zittrer | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% |
| Sam Bonauto | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 11.9% | 17.7% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% |
| Thad Lettsome | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 12.9% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 8.5% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Trevor Davis | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 12.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.