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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.12+8.24vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+9.32vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island3.23+5.74vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.91+5.80vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.53+2.22vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.54+1.19vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.49+4.71vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.42-0.40vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.00+0.45vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.99-0.16vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.47-3.41vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University3.22-3.08vs Predicted
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13College of Charleston3.10-4.09vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-3.76vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-5.45vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-5.05vs Predicted
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17Tulane University2.50-5.21vs Predicted
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18Tufts University2.62-7.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.24Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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11.32Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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8.74University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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9.8Boston College2.910.0%1st Place
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7.22Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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7.19Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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11.71Bowdoin College2.490.0%1st Place
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7.6Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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9.45Roger Williams University3.000.0%1st Place
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9.84U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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7.59Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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8.92Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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8.91College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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10.24U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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9.55St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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10.95Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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11.79Tulane University2.500.0%1st Place
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10.93Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Egan | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.9% |
| Will Murray | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 10.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 9.0% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 12.0% |
| Connor Nelson | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% |
| Robert Bragg | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 2.9% |
| Colman Schofield | 4.1% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% |
| Sam Bruce | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 10.6% |
| Thad Lettsome | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 14.8% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 10.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.