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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University2.45+10.99vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.49+10.00vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island3.23+5.81vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.54+3.11vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.99+4.42vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.12+2.98vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+3.54vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston3.10+0.96vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.91+0.86vs Predicted
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10Brown University3.42-2.08vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University3.22-2.35vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College3.47-4.14vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University3.00-3.64vs Predicted
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14Stanford University3.53-7.07vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-3.99vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-6.37vs Predicted
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17Tufts University2.62-5.72vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-7.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.99Tulane University2.450.0%1st Place
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12.0Bowdoin College2.490.0%1st Place
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8.81University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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7.11Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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9.42U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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8.98Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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10.54U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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8.96College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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9.86Boston College2.910.0%1st Place
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7.92Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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8.65Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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7.86Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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9.36Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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6.93Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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11.01Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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9.63St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.0%1st Place
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11.28Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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10.7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holthus | 3.5% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 16.3% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 11.6% | 13.5% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% |
| Jack Egan | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.3% |
| Colman Schofield | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% |
| Noah Zittrer | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.5% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% |
| Connor Nelson | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Mariner Fagan | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Robert Bragg | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 8.9% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Will Murray | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 9.6% |
| Owen Hennessey | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 11.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.3% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.