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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+9.68vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.10+7.28vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+8.13vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.53+3.15vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.47+2.43vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.50vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.60vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.12+0.88vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University3.22-0.53vs Predicted
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10Boston College2.91+0.13vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.42-3.20vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island3.23-3.12vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.49-1.43vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-3.25vs Predicted
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15Tulane University2.45-3.17vs Predicted
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16Harvard University3.54-8.77vs Predicted
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17Tufts University2.62-5.64vs Predicted
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18Roger Williams University3.00-8.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.68U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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9.28College of Charleston3.100.0%1st Place
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11.13Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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7.15Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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7.43Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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9.5U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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9.6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.88Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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8.47Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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10.13Boston College2.910.1%1st Place
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7.8Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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8.88University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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11.57Bowdoin College2.490.0%1st Place
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10.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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11.83Tulane University2.450.0%1st Place
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7.23Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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11.36Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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9.33Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 9.2% |
| Noah Zittrer | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| Sam Bruce | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.6% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 9.7% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Robert Bragg | 8.3% | 10.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.2% |
| Jack Egan | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 2.6% |
| Mariner Fagan | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 5.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% |
| Connor Nelson | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 13.3% |
| Will Murray | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.1% |
| Kelly Holthus | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 14.9% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Trevor Davis | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 11.3% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.