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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.47+6.55vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+8.59vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.54+4.16vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.99+5.19vs Predicted
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5Boston College2.91+4.59vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.42+1.50vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.49+4.50vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.99+1.24vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University3.22-0.77vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.12-0.98vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.00-1.60vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island3.23-3.32vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-2.52vs Predicted
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14Tufts University2.23-1.80vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-5.71vs Predicted
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16Tulane University2.45-4.22vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-6.00vs Predicted
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18College of Charleston3.10-9.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.55Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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10.59U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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7.16Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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9.19U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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9.59Boston College2.910.1%1st Place
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7.5Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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11.5Bowdoin College2.490.0%1st Place
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9.24Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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8.23Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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9.02Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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9.4Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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8.68University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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10.48Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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12.2Tufts University2.230.0%1st Place
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9.29St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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11.78Tulane University2.450.0%1st Place
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11.0Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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8.6College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Bragg | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Colman Schofield | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 3.7% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% |
| Connor Nelson | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 10.2% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% |
| Mariner Fagan | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% |
| Jack Egan | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.8% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.5% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 12.1% | 17.7% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.2% |
| Kelly Holthus | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 14.7% |
| Will Murray | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.8% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.