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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+9.49vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.42+5.61vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+6.60vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.99+5.23vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.37+6.81vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island3.23+2.27vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+3.84vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.54-1.06vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.12-0.27vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.23+2.79vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston3.10-1.99vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College3.47-4.40vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University3.22-4.86vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University3.00-5.02vs Predicted
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15Boston College2.91-5.42vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-5.32vs Predicted
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17Stanford University2.99-7.60vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College2.49-6.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.49U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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7.61Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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9.6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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9.23U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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11.81Tulane University2.370.0%1st Place
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8.27University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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10.84Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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6.94Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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8.73Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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12.79Tufts University2.230.0%1st Place
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9.01College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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7.6Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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8.14Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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8.98Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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9.58Boston College2.910.1%1st Place
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10.68Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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9.4Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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11.3Bowdoin College2.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 4.6% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 7.2% |
| Connor Nelson | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.6% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.9% |
| Samantha Gardner | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 14.9% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% |
| Will Murray | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.1% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Jack Egan | 5.0% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.0% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 12.7% | 21.2% |
| Noah Zittrer | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% |
| Robert Bragg | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.7% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 2.6% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% |
| Sam Bruce | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 2.8% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 11.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.