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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.12+7.93vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island3.23+6.47vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.99+6.56vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.22+4.23vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+5.51vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.45+5.64vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston3.10+1.80vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+2.77vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.42-1.70vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.54-2.77vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.47-3.65vs Predicted
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12Boston College2.91-1.95vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-3.85vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.99-5.05vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-4.75vs Predicted
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16Tufts University2.23-3.40vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University3.00-7.58vs Predicted
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18Tulane University2.37-6.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.93Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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8.47University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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9.56Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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8.23Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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10.51Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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11.64Bowdoin College2.450.0%1st Place
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8.8College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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10.77Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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7.3Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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7.23Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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7.35Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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10.05Boston College2.910.0%1st Place
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9.15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.95U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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10.25U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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12.6Tufts University2.230.0%1st Place
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9.42Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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11.8Tulane University2.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Egan | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 7.6% |
| Sam Bonauto | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 13.5% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% |
| Will Murray | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.2% |
| Connor Nelson | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Robert Bragg | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.5% |
| Colman Schofield | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 20.3% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.4% |
| Samantha Gardner | 3.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 13.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.