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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.75+6.37vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.43+6.71vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.29+6.16vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island3.23+1.45vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.38+3.55vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+1.75vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.77+0.11vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.25+1.08vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-1.62vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.81-2.79vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.44+1.35vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.82-4.81vs Predicted
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13Olin College of Engineering0.52+1.91vs Predicted
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14Harvard University2.87-7.43vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.37-2.54vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College1.45-3.78vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont1.27-3.96vs Predicted
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18Fairfield University0.69-3.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.37Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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8.71Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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9.16Brown University2.290.0%1st Place
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5.45University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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8.55Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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7.75U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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7.11Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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9.08Boston College2.250.0%1st Place
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7.38Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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7.21Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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12.35Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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7.19Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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14.91Olin College of Engineering0.520.0%1st Place
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6.57Harvard University2.870.1%1st Place
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12.46Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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12.22Connecticut College1.450.0%1st Place
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13.04University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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14.5Fairfield University0.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 13.0% | 13.9% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Jack Redmond | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.7% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 9.1% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 13.8% | 12.5% | 7.1% |
| William Michels | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| James Jagielski | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 10.2% | 17.9% | 34.8% |
| Robby Meek | 9.4% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 8.6% |
| Duncan Craine | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 7.6% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 13.3% | 14.1% | 12.7% |
| Nolan Cooper | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 18.7% | 25.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.