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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.09+8.53vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.05+3.88vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.12+2.63vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93+5.82vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.38+3.15vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.29-1.04vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.44+0.98vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.37+0.18vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.72-2.16vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.00-0.12vs Predicted
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11Fairfield University0.82+2.84vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.60-0.44vs Predicted
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13Tufts University1.93-3.22vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont1.22-1.72vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-6.80vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College1.59-4.68vs Predicted
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17Olin College of Engineering-1.07+0.26vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island1.91-8.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.53Bowdoin College2.090.0%1st Place
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5.88Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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5.63Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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9.82U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.0%1st Place
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8.15Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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4.96Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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7.98Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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8.18Harvard University2.370.1%1st Place
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6.84Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
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9.88Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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13.84Fairfield University0.820.0%1st Place
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11.56Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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9.78Tufts University1.930.0%1st Place
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12.28University of Vermont1.220.0%1st Place
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8.2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
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11.32Connecticut College1.590.0%1st Place
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17.26Olin College of Engineering-1.070.0%1st Place
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9.9University of Rhode Island1.910.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 0.2% |
| Blake Behrens | 8.5% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 11.3% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 0.7% |
| Mathieu Dale | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Stephan Baker | 14.9% | 13.6% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Harrison Strom | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 0.6% |
| Bryce Vitiello | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 13.7% | 27.2% | 9.6% |
| Porter Bell | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 1.3% |
| Clark Morris | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 0.7% |
| Ethan Burt | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 10.8% | 13.7% | 16.6% | 3.8% |
| Robert Ulmer | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 1.6% |
| Benjamin Ely | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 8.2% | 79.9% |
| Henry Lee | 4.2% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.