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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.29+3.96vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.09+7.31vs Predicted
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31.91+7.09vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College1.59+6.76vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.55+2.29vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.12-0.72vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.44+0.76vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.72-1.36vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont1.22+3.34vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.38-1.77vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93-1.21vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.69-1.01vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University2.00-3.74vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-6.26vs Predicted
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15Tufts University1.93-5.41vs Predicted
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16Olin College of Engineering-1.07+1.10vs Predicted
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17Harvard University2.37-8.77vs Predicted
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18Fairfield University-0.12-2.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.96Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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9.31Bowdoin College2.090.0%1st Place
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10.091.910.0%1st Place
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10.76Connecticut College1.590.0%1st Place
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7.29Brown University2.550.1%1st Place
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5.28Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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7.76Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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6.64Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
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12.34University of Vermont1.220.0%1st Place
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8.23Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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9.79U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.0%1st Place
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10.99Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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9.26Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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7.74Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
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9.59Tufts University1.930.0%1st Place
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17.1Olin College of Engineering-1.070.0%1st Place
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8.23Harvard University2.370.1%1st Place
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15.63Fairfield University-0.120.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 14.7% | 14.6% | 13.1% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Henry Lee | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 0.6% |
| Skylor Sweet | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 4.7% | 1.3% |
| Martins Atilla | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 13.1% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 8.5% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Burt | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 17.9% | 12.1% | 1.9% |
| Mathieu Dale | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 0.2% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 7.3% | 0.7% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| Robert Ulmer | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Clark Morris | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Ely | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 16.1% | 71.5% |
| Harrison Strom | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Jane Matthews | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 10.9% | 42.7% | 22.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.